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Written by Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant
Poland continues to escalate tensions against Russia and Belarus. In a recent speech, the country’s prime minister expressed a desire to join NATO’s nuclear program, which would allow Warsaw to have American weapons on its territory. The project comes amid attempts by Poland to “deter” Russia, which in practice could lead to a catastrophe.
Mateusz Morawiecki’s words on this topic were spoken during the press conference after the EU summit in Brussels on the 30th of June. He emphasized that although the final decision on the matter depends on his Western partners, in his opinion it would be wrong not to respond to Russia and Belarus’ initiative to share nuclear weapons. According to Morawiecki, the deployment of weapons on Belarusian territory is a “Putin’s provocation”, which needs to be answered with an equivalent measure: the deployment of American weapons on Polish soil.
“Because Russia intends to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, we address the entire NATO to take part in the Nuclear Sharing program (…) The final decision will depend on our American and NATO partners. We declare our will to act quickly in this matter (…) We do not want to sit idly by while [Russian President Vladimir] Putin escalates all sorts of threats”, he said.
In fact, this is not the first time that Polish authorities have shown interest in receiving Western nuclear weapons on their territory. Last year, some months after Minsk announced its intention to host Russian weapons, Andrzej Duda said he had contacted his American partners to discuss the possibility of responding to the Belarusian-Russian move with the arrival of NATO’s weapons in Poland.
“There is always a potential opportunity to participate in the nuclear sharing program (…) We have spoken with American leaders about whether the United States is considering such a possibility. The issue is open”, Duda announced in October.
At the time, advancing the project, Poland was allowed to participate in NATO’s nuclear deterrence exercise “Steadfast Noon“, an annual program which “helps ensure that the Alliance’s nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure, and effective”. The drills included training to put the plans of the alliance’s nuclear sharing program’s members into action, but Warsaw was not included in this category of countries, participating in the operations only as a support force.
Currently, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Holland and Turkey have US nuclear weapons on their territories. It is estimated that there are more than two hundred American atomic bombs abroad, with the program being focused on the use of the B61 air-dropped weapons, whose launch depends on the work of the so-called Dual Capable Aircraft (DCA). With the possible entry of Poland into the program, the aggressive posture of the US in Europe would be strongly boosted, creating possibly irreversible tensions.
In fact, Poland uses very weak rhetoric when justifying its request for nuclear weapons on the supposed “threat” posed by the joint strategy of Russia and Belarus. Minsk is receiving Russian weapons for two main reasons: the first is that there is a need to increase its deterrence power in the face of provocations made by NATO and Kiev neo-Nazi regime and the second reason is that this is a legal maneuver for the country, since Belarus maintains a military integration and collective defense deal with Russia within the scope of the Union State.
Belarus has been the target of several attacks carried out by Ukrainian and Belarusian dissident terrorists, many of whom cross the border precisely from Poland – a country that openly trains troops of the neo-Nazi anti-Lukashenko militia “Bypol“. By speaking of “threats” in what concerns the Belarusian-Russian strategy, Warsaw is inverting the rhetoric: it is Minsk, not Poland, that is threatened and repeatedly attacked.
By receiving American weapons, Poland would only be increasing this provocation against Belarus even more and thus legitimizing even stronger response actions. In this scenario, Russia could send even more nuclear weapons to the partner country, in addition to helping to promote a more intense militarization of the borders. With Moscow and Minsk committed to mutual defense and Russia having a much stronger military power than Poland and other neighboring countries, the plan to “deter Russia” with American nuclear weapons sounds ridiculous from a strategic perspective. The deployment of these bombs would only irresponsibly raise tensions without any real deterrent effect on Russia.
It remains to be seen whether the Atlantic alliance will handle the matter with due caution. In order to prevent current tensions from escalating to the level of a nuclear world war, it is necessary for NATO to guarantee minimum conditions of coexistence, not only renouncing expansionism but also avoiding the nuclearization of the Russian strategic environment – which includes Poland.
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