Sooner than expected, the consequences of the United States (US)-Israel war on Iran are now spreading over Philippine agriculture. The tension has significantly affected the conduit of global seaborne trade. The Strait of Hormuz handles the transit of 38% of the world’s crude oil supply, 29% of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), 19% of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and 13% of the world’s fertilizer supply.
One-third (16 million tons) of the global seaborne trade in fertilizers passes through the Persian Gulf Region, particularly 67% of Urea, 20% of Diammonium Phosphate (DAP), and 9% of Monoammonium Phosphate. Urea and DAP are the most used inorganic fertilizers in the Philippines for growing rice, corn, fruits, vegetables, sugarcane, and high-value crops. Rice and corn are the major users of the said fertilizers, at 38% and 21%, respectively. The biggest item for both cereals is Urea (100 kilograms (kg)/hectare (ha) for either crop), followed by NPK fertilizer (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) at 80 kg/ha for rice and 65 kg/ha for corn.
From 2021 to 2023, the country imported a cumulative total of 7.1 million metric tons (MMT) of assorted fertilizers, 63% of which was Urea. The country’s fertilizer use is 90% dependent on imports, with China as the top exporter, accounting for 44% of the 7.1 MMT for the period, followed by Indonesia and Malaysia, with 0.83% and 0.79%, respectively.
In March 2026, in retaliation for the US-Israel attacks, the Iranian government blocked passage in the Hormuz Strait, except for Chinese cargo ships, which were allowed to proceed for business. Despite the transit of this freight, the United States’ recent blockade of sea lanes going to Iran, as well as Iran’s restriction in the Strait of Hormuz are causing major disruptions in the trade of goods, even with allowance for Chinese cargo ships.
With China being the world’s top producer and exporter of fertilizer, especially in the Philippines, why should this mean food peril for the Filipino people?
The Chinese government has announced that it will be restricting its fertilizer exports due to recent developments in the Strait. Despite being the top producer of nitrogen-based fertilizers in the world, China’s supply chain remains affected, as the country sources its raw materials from the Middle East, particularly Urea, DAP, phosphate, nitrogen, and sulfur. (Note that these are fertilizers, but are also used as raw materials or base components in the production of fertilizers.)
According to a report by Guosen Securities, a Chinese state-owned financial firm, China relies on the Middle East to import 47% of its fertilizer input, all of which comes from six Persian Gulf nations.
Various Chinese fertilizer plants that have failed to secure chemical inputs and feedstocks on time may have to cut their operation rates or shut down. Some are delaying planting schedules or reducing cultivated area after failing to secure sufficient fertilizer supplies. Prices of sulphur have also drastically risen, and China has declared to prioritize its domestic farmers by releasing stockpiles of nitrogen, phosphate, and compound fertilizers to sell to local agriculture producers.
As China cuts production, the fertilizer supply is expected to become more unstable. Such volatility is projected to spread rapidly, especially across Asia. The crisis doubles for countries with high dependence on Chinese fertilizer, as in the case of the Philippines.
With the delay and shortage of input supply from China and other countries, Filipino farmers expect higher production costs, especially rice and corn farmers. Fertilizers account for 24% of the Filipino rice farmer’s production cash costs. Urea prices have been recorded to shoot up by more than 40% to US$700 per metric ton from only under US$500 before the US bombing of Iran.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr is projecting a price increase of Php2-5 per kilogram for various agricultural inputs, while the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura (SINAG) reports more significant surges for specific types. In particular, Urea has been reported to have climbed significantly, from approximately Php1,600 to Php2,600 per sack. Sec. Tiu Laurel projects that the full impact of these price spikes on food prices is expected to be felt more acutely in the third or fourth quarter of 2026.
The Philippine government is looking at importing rice again instead of protecting and boosting local production. However, rice imported from Vietnam, China, and other exporting countries is anticipated to be more expensive, what with the increase in fertilizer prices.
Are we headed to the inevitability of food insecurity or famine from a war that is not of our own making but brings the heaviest toll on us? More expensive fuel and fertilizer should not be a threat if only the Philippine government protects the domestic economy, local food production, and the direct food producers—the farmers and fisherfolk. So long as the war continues, the more it will starve the world. The Philippine government is called upon to take measures to ensure food security, instead of kowtowing to the US’s geopolitical aims.
