Click to see full-size image
Written by Jordi Oriola Folch
In the last autonomic elections in Catalonia in 2021, the three pro-independence parties (ERC from the center-left, JUNTS from the center-right and CUP from the left) won 52% of the votes. A kind of unofficial referendum, which showed the desire of the people of Catalonia to be able to decide to leave the Spanish state as a solution to the constant disagreements and the irreconcilable way of living the political, economic and social. This divergence can already be found in 1714, when the Crown of Castile imposed itself by force of arms over the Crown of Aragon. The way in which the Crown of Aragon managed its internal diversity with an autonomy respectful of the different territories that made it up (Catalonia, Aragon, Valencia and the Balearic Islands), and how the Crown of Aragon related to the Crown of Castile, seeking mutual respect, came to an end.
That 52% verdict in a legal election reinforced the mandate of the 2017 referendum for the independence of Catalonia and which unleashed a fierce repression by the Spanish State: judicial threats (hundreds of accused, millionaire fines, prison sentences, politicians dismissed by “lawfare”…. ), police threats (harassment of demonstrations, the “Operation Catalonia” carried out by an illegal and secret police group to damage the independence movement, illegal espionage with Pegasus, possible blackmail with the information obtained in this espionage…), media threats (singling out, criminalization and dehumanization of the Catalans and their demands)…
Click to see full-size image
And in this context, the 52% victory has not been translated into any concrete policy of the Catalan Government (formed by ERC and JUNTS) towards self-determination but rather into obedience towards Spain, support to all the projects of the Spanish Government and a totally failed attempt of Catalonia-Spain dialogue (they have met twice in three years). In the end, JUNTS left the Catalan Government which has continued with only ERC.
Then, in the municipal elections of May 28 there has been a large abstention of Catalan pro-independence voters as a measure of punishment to the pro-independence parties themselves. It has been demonstrated that the Catalan pro-independence movement, which is citizen rather than partitocratic, is still mobilized and will not allow the Catalan pro-independence parties to evade their responsibility to carry out the independence of Catalonia. If the citizens had continued to vote, as always, massively for the pro-independence parties, they would have understood that they could continue their renunciation and the postponement of independence until the next generation. 530,000 voters abstained (+10%), almost all, 330,000, from the pro-independence parties. The party in the Catalan government, ERC, has lost 300,000 votes (-37% of its votes), the CUP has lost 44,000 votes (-25% of its votes) and JUNTS has risen a little (only +3%).
Abstention is usually interpreted as a sign of disinterest in politics, but this increase seems rather the opposite, since in Catalonia interest in politics is among the highest in the world according to surveys. This increase in abstention is attributed to the most convinced independentistas who, despite losing their share of power, are trying not to be swallowed by institutional politics and are sending a powerful message to the independentistas parties to rectify their strategy.
Regarding the mayoralty of Barcelona, despite the fact that a pro-independence party, JUNTS, has won the first position, the coalition of JUNTS-ERC has not achieved the government of Barcelona, because in the end a very forced pact of anti-independence (socialists, left and right) has been imposed, which has given the mayoralty to a socialist.
Just at the end of these municipal elections, the Spanish Government announced the calling of state elections for July 23rd. Possibly, as the pro-independence parties have not made any changes to their strategy, pro-independence voters will persist in the strategy of punishing the pro-independence parties to make them react. We will also have to be attentive to see if, in Spain, the right wing of the PP and the extreme right wing of VOX will take power, as the polls predict.
