South Front
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Written by Julian Macfarlane
Too much information— and too little
How to manage information overload? The media seldom offers facts — just stories.
Right now, there are various interpretations of Prigozhin’s behavior. Stories….
At the beginning, I sided with B. at MoA, Larry Johnson and Will Schryver. There were those with different interpretations – the very wonderful Simplicius, Mark Sleboda and Andrew Korbyko — for example. Not to mention, my friend Aleks at BMA.
I encourage you to read ALL these people and support them! Just because I differ sometimes doesn’t mean that they are wrong. Every grounded perspective is valuable.
In the case of Prigozhin, it is difficult to separate fact from fiction, analysis from conjecture— and you certainly cannot trust the media—in any respect.
In any case, as events continue to unfold, it seems that the commentators I mentioned, including me, were all right — as well as all wrong at the same time.
That is always a problem when you have too much information —and too little at the same time.
One must look to Putin’s most recent speeches for clarification.
Compared to his Western counterparts, Putin is the soul of honesty.
The Schryver take on Putin’s speech
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Here is his take (from Twitter):
I just read the RT translation of Putin’s statement. It clarifies many things for me, and corrects my misconceptions on certain important questions:
The Prigozhin Mutiny was apparently NOT some sort of “psyop”, but rather a product of Prigozhin’s madness — which I had doubted for a long time.
Putin explicitly confirms the loss of Russian airmen at the hands of Wagner forces — something I had found inconceivable and irreconcilable with Prigozhin simply being permitted to walk “free” (as it seemed). Also, with these and other questions satisfactorily resolved in my mind, I can more clearly see the wisdom in permitting the “mutiny” to develop as it did, and waiting for an appropriate moment to defuse it. And, based on what Putin has said, he (Prigozhin) will be held accountable for the crimes he has committed.
Now, Putin has not said under what circumstances the Russian pilots died. Most likely, some trigger-happy Wagnerites thought they were under attack when they weren’t. I doubt Priggy sanctioned shooting down anything.
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No matter —a line had been crossed. Whether accidental or not, Russian soldiers killing Russian soldiers meant immediate action had to be taken and the Russian military, apparently forewarned were also forearmed.
Bernard’s Take
The MoD was well-informed about Priggy’s intentions. Bernard at MoA writes about that very convincingly, although I cannot confirm his sources.
Gen. Sergei Surovikin of course knew that something was up with Wagner. The whole Russian leadership knew of it. Orders were obviously given for everyone to stand down and to let Prigozhin do what he had planned to do.
There was zero action taken by the border guards, the internal security force Rosguardia, by the police and the Russian military. That is unexplainable unless there was an order from very high up to step back instead of seeking a fight. President Putin’s primary aim was to avoid unnecessary casualties which he largely achieved.
The question of course is why Putin was so indulgent of Priggy. Is it “out of character” — or “in character”?
Priggy had been playing the Mad Fool for months and months.
He was always the Hot Dog guy shouting at the weekend crowd. He would do anything for attention.
No one took it too seriously, although his stance appealed to those who felt Russia’s re-deployment out of the Kharkov region including Izium and from Kherson were defeats, instead of successful strategic maneuvers.
Technically, Priggy’s criticisms, voiced as they were, were illegal — but the MoD tolerated that extra hot mustard anyway.
Why?
Because the West listened. And took it all seriously. And got food poisoning.
Crazy stuff….
One must consider recent reports of “white powder” being found in Prigozhin’s offices. Was a baking a cake? Or was it cocaine.
His outbursts were so much over the top, that maybe , just maybe he was high at the time.
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A common mistake of all analysts— especially me — is to look for rationality in the irrational— in the wrong places, blinkered by assumptions. This leads to conjecture. There are always reasons for things — but they are too often hidden in the condiments, so to speak. Beware food poisoning.
Did Priggy want power? Or just money?
Among the many interpretations of Priggy’s unusual behavior is that he wanted political power — to take over— from, at least, Shoigu. This comes from his outbursts attacking the man.
I doubt that Prigozshin ever imagined in his dreams that he could take power from Putin. Or actually even from either Gerasimov and Shoigu. So, what was this about?
Priggy said all sorts of things that were clearly false— but only the Western Media paid attention. As I said, it sounded like he was high a lot of the time.
In Russia, he was just the Mad Fool ranting, except maybe for the Fifth and Sixth Columns.
Consider: Wagner was completely funded by the very MoD he was attacking and from whom his food services made a lot of money. Did Priggy found Wagner as he claimed? No, that was the MoD and the GRU. They gave the wagon to sell his dogs.
As I said before, we are dealing mostly with stories rather than verifiable facts.
The story I went with previously, disputed by some, is that Wagner was called “Wagner” after the call sign of its first leader, Dmitry Utkin— a shadowy ex-military figure who operated in Donbass in 2014 and was also active in Syria.
For examples of different stories read Larry Johnson who taps CIA buzz.
Verification is difficult because private military companies— are so supposed to be “private”—-set up to work in the shadows. They almost always look ugly in the light.
No matter — it is unlikely Prigozhin was biting the hand that fed him, just growling and howling, shitting on the carpet —then rolling over to get his tummy rubbed.
The last we heard from Priggy was his “mutiny” was just “protest” — a kind of labor dispute. LOL.
Did Priggy want to keep his job?
When Prigozhin became CEO of Wagner, he must have known that this was a temporary appointment — given Putin’s long-standing commitment to bringing Wagner and all other private military companies— which were— and still are — technically illegal in Russia—- into the fold, as integral parts of the Russian military.
This was particularly important once Donbass became part of Russia— under Russian law which meant that Wagner was suddenly out of the shadows.
Putin is a lawyer. His overriding concern is the rule of law both for Russia— and for the world.
In the West we are used to privatization of….well…everything. Including the law, which too often depends on how much you can pay.
But legalizing Wagner amounted to de-privatization.
The thrust of Putin’s reforms over the years—as of Xi’s in China — has been to bring corporations more and more under the control of the State—something which is hugely threatening to the neoliberal West, where the State and the public increasingly serve Big Business. We have many gods, as the Greeks did. Their names are Jeff, Elon, Bill…
Prigozhin was really just cover for the State’s control of Wagner.
His successes were really those of the government – -including the convicts he recruited. A lot died compared to Wagner’s ex-military professionals— but those that survived got full pardons — and their recidivism rate for them has proved to be very low— under one percent—compared to 44% in the US.
What happens when the hot dog guy, maybe high on coke, is told he has to move his cart and move somewhere else?
He gets crazy. Maybe.
Is Priggy crazy?
Maybe only when high . Real nutcases don’t get to keep gold bars in their office drawer.
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If he were as nutso as some think, he wouldn’t have backed down so fast—when it was clear that he had overstepped, and Putin was really pissed!
He still got a deal. Priggy gets to keep his PMC — much downsized — in Belarus where he will be under the watchful eye of Lukashenko. If he wants to go back to Russia, he will need to redeem himself.
If he is lucky, he will find some competent commanders and military professionals to rebuild. You will notice that he has been very, very quiet recently.
People like him are not the real threats — those are the quietly “normal” insane like Joe Biden and his crew. Their insanity is virulent and there is no vaccine.
Putin is re-inventing Russia.
In the martial arts, we are taught situational awareness. We use our peripheral vision to orient ourselves holistically. We must look ahead, anticipate our opponent. See everything around.
What we see happening is one thing: what goes down next, quite another.
To understand Prigozhin and Putin, we must avoid stumbling on details and look at the bigger picture, past, present— and future— the way in which what were just possibilities are being realized.
This is the way Putin understands his new Russia. Not just “restored” — but new. Not great again. But greater than anyone imagined.
Therefore, he must:
- get national consensus and support— which the current war with the West provides.
- restructure and modernize the military, which is happening very fast.
- re-invent the intelligence services which took over from the KGB—which he has done partially.
- create a more egalitarian society, reining in the oligarchs, without prejudice to the economy — the same problem the Chinese face— and the one that the US is avoiding even thinking about
- re-imagine both Russian economy and industry, bringing major corporations under governmental and popular control
- reform the legal system
But, as we can see in the West, especially in the US—real change like Putin wants is a long process and must overcome all kinds of challenges within and without the country.
The war with the Western horde
“When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” – Samuel Johnson.
For Putin, the War with the West, including the SMO including sanctions, and incidents like the Nordstream bombing and terrorist attacks on Russia, have been enormously useful. Not that he wanted these things or liked them—just that once they happened, he knew to take advantage of them. Martial arts like Judo and Sambo work best when you are attacked. Leverage, positioning, balance, calm – all these things matter.
Your enemy may be bigger and even more skilled at some things but if he is overconfident, you have the advantage.
“When strong, appear weak. Brave, appear fearful. Orderly, appear chaotic. Full, appear empty. Wise, appear foolish. Many, appear to be few. Advancing, appear to retreat. Moving quickly, appear to be slow. Taking, appear to leave. In one place, appear to be in another.” Sun Tzu
Russia is strong. The West think it is weak. Russia is courageous and orderly— the West thinks it fearful and chaotic. Priggy’s madness played to the West’s own prejudices— and convinced them to make the same mistakes over and over again. The results in Bakhmut could not be more obvious. Not to mention in the ill-advised “counteroffensive” which NATO forced on the Ukrainians. Thousands dead and huge losses of materiel.
Priggy was a piggy — no doubt — but never a real threat to Russia.
I am not saying that Putin orchestrated Prigozhin’s madness. But he knows people. That was his job at the KGB. And he knew Priggy.
The war on the Carpetbaggers
Contemporarily speaking, the term carpetbagger refers to roving financial opportunists, often of modest means, who spot investment opportunities and aim to benefit from a set of circumstances to which they are not ordinarily entitled
(Wikipedia)
With the fall of the USSR and social and governmental chaos, you had the rise of a class of people — who, as I have written elsewhere— had the good fortune to be in the right place at the right time. Some of these people became oligarchs. Others rose in the government, military, the “intelligence community” and the bureaucracies. By and large, they looked to the West. Call them the Carpetbagger Class – opportunists. I am told that in Central Europe they are called the “Goosefeather trading class”.
Putin brought them to heel in the first years of his administration. But they are still there represented by the so-called “fifth” and “sixth columns”.
You will notice that Putin has not too subtly shifted focus from Prigozhin to “others”—unnamed “traitors”. And who are they?
Now Russia’s fifth and sixth columns are frantically trying to march to the beat of his drum. He is unlikely be as forgiving of them as he was of the Hot Dog guy, who — after all— really proved useful.
Investigations are underway.
For starters, the FSB and other agencies are investigating Prigozhin and his dealings .
Putin said the state paid Wagner 86.26 billion rubles ($1 billion) between May 2022-May 2023 in maintenance and incentive payments alone.
He added that Wagner’s owner, the U.S.-sanctioned company Concord, has earned another 80 billion rubles from catering contracts with the Defense Ministry over the past year.
“I hope that no one stole anything or stole very little, either way, we’ll deal with that,” Putin said, hinting at possible law enforcement inspections into Wagner’s finances.
This means that the FSB will be investigating not just Prigozhin but his enablers – especially those in the MoD and maybe GRU also, if not elsewhere.
This is likely the beginning of crackdowns on other companies with state contracts. With the country behind him— thanks to Priggy—Putin has full rein for a national anti-corruption drive. Xi did it in China with great success, applauded by the public. Now, it’s Putin’s turn.
Banging your head against the walls
Repeating the same mistake is madness, as everyone knows. The West keeps on doing it because they live in media boxes with concrete walls that they constantly bang their heads against. It’s tradition.
On the heels of the “mutiny”, Putin has declared that “Ukraine” is no longer a sovereign state. He has a legal basis for that claim since the Western Ukrainians repudiated the legal agreements that made them a state!
So….
