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Old conflicts and newly emerging ones continue to torn the Middle East, despite recent progress in some parts of the region.
In Yemen, talks between the Iran-aliened Houthis (Ansar Allah) and Saudi Arabia are yet to be resumed. Last April, the Kingdom made the decision to de-facto end the war on the country after a Chinese-brokered agreement with Tehran.
The first round of Houthi-Saudi talks, which went on from April 8 to 14, produced several understandings. It is still unclear, however, when the second round will be held, or if any draft agreement was reached.
As of May 3, Nearly 2,500 people have been released so far as part of prisoner exchange deals between the warring parties. Despite this, clashes are still ongoing in several parts of the country, with reports of Saudi drone strikes against the Houthis.
Situation in Syria has also been improving, despite no progress in the political settlement. On May 7, the country was officially readmitted to the Arab league. The development was a symbolic victory for the government of President Bashar al-Assad, which is slowly breaking out of regional isolation.
On May 9, Syria and Saudi Arabia announced reopening embassies, in another step cementing Damascus return to the Arab fold.
The Syrian-Turkish normalization process, which is sponsored by Russia and Iran, also appears to be gaining momentum again. Foreign ministers of the four countries met in Moscow on May 10. The meeting could help set the ground for a summit between President al-Assad and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, if the latter wins the upcoming general elections in Turkey.
Despite the positive political developments, tensions remain high on the ground in different parts of Syria. In the northwestern region of Greater Idlib, terrorist groups led by al-Qaeda’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham continue to violate the ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the oil-rich parts of the northeastern region remain under the control of the United States-led coalition. This situation will not likely change soon.
Meanwhile in Sudan, the power struggle between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF) is flaring up. Calls for direct talks between the warring sides by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. are yet to bear any results.
Clashes in the capital, Khartoum, and other parts of the country are still ongoing as of May 10. According to the World Health Organization, the death toll is now over 600. More than 5,000 others were wounded. Sudan remains threatened with a civil war as a result of the conflict, which is a direct result of a disagreement over how the RSF should be integrated into the army and what authority should oversee the process during transition to civilian-led rule in the country.
Overall, the conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Sudan do not appear to be nearing their end. In addition, tensions continue to grow in Israeli-occupied Palestinian territory, mainly the West Bank, as well as around the Gaza Strip. This will further destabilize the Middle East in the short term.
