Source: Financial Times
Doubling down on failure
Written by Julian Macfarlane, Tokyo-based military and geopolitical analyst.
The Japanese hosted the G7 Summit this year. Predictably is was Kabuki. A show with costumes, song and dance, incomprehensible to the audience. The story doesn’t matter.
What can one say?
And, by the way, Modi and Lula were not impressed. Nor were the Vietnamese or the Indonesians.
First, however some background….
May 20, 2022. Mariupol fell to the Russians.
May 20, 2023. Bakhmut fell.
What Henry Kissinger referred to as Europe’s best equipped, most powerful army — the Ukrainian Armed forces— was defeated mostly by a private military force of light infantry—a first in history. A force less than 30,000 defeated an army of 120,000, inflicting horrendous casualties.
That was just a short time after the Russians blew up an ammo depot in Khmelnytsky which held DU munitions. Toxic clouds rolled across Eastern Europe, likely poisoning the land — and human DNA— for generations. While the West claims that DU is not radioactive, radiation levels spiked. Experts worried.
Dr Chris Busby, the scientific secretary of the European Committee on Radiation Risk writes:
“The British and the Americans continue to cling to their crazy theory that these radioactive substances which bind to DNA are effectively harmless and have no genetic or indiscriminate effects on populations,” Busby said. “In this case, I just have to say that the British are wrong, that this substance contaminates Europe and will cause all of the effects that it caused in Iraq (…) It will cause all those effects in Germany, and Luxemburg, and France, and Sweden, and the Baltic States and a long list of countries which stand between Ukraine and the United Kingdom, where we measured it.”
Then, the Russians destroyed most of the latest American Patriot system in Kiev at a cost to the American taxpayer of close to $800,000,000. In five minutes. The Patriot did nothing. I can do nothing, too. And I will do it for only a million.
The UAF “counteroffensive” was put off till Summer. The beaches in Crimea are better then, as one of my sources said. So the Ukraine has been reduced to carrying out what John Helms calls “imitation offensives” — hiccups and burps after gorging on Western military aid.
The Western media has responded by hyping the Leopard II’s big “advantage” of being able to drive faster in reverse than Russian tanks — in other words to retreat. Which so far is all the Leopards have done.
Oh yes, the Russians now have yet another key town, Adeevka, pretty much surrounded.
Zaluzhny, head the UAF forces, hasn’t been seen for a long time.
Some rumors suggest that Zelensky feared a coup led by Zaluzhny and arranged for his disappearance, replacing him with his second in command Oleksander Syrsky. While one must be careful of rumors, these raise questions about the integrity of the command structure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and dissension in the ranks.
In the meantime, Vladimir Zelensky has been all over the place — except for Ukraine of course.
Is this a trend? Everyone wants Zelly on Telly.
The Japanese literally begged Zelensky to come to Japan. He was flown in on a French jet at their and, as you can see from the photo, I began with he was right in the middle, appropriately dressed in his trademark sorta military wear. I know, I know, no flak jacket, but you can’t have everything. Hey, the man can play the piano with his dick.
Japan hosted the show in Hiroshima which is Kishida’s hometown — and also the site of one of America’s biggest crimes against humanity, carried out to show the Soviets who was boss in 1945, after their Army wiped out Japan’s in northern China in a couple of weeks.
But Japan kept to the American script.
Here’s what my old friends at the Japanese Foreign Ministry put out. No— they didn’t write it themselves in case you’re wondering. And no, it wasn’t me! (although I have worked for them on occasion).
Prime Minister Kishida states that as the world is facing an unprecedented crisis by aggression against Ukraine and the growing risk of use of weapons of mass destruction, at the G7 Hiroshima Summit in 2023, Japan would like to demonstrate G7’s strong determination to categorically deny military aggressions, any threats of nuclear weapons, as well as attempts to overthrow the international order with historical significance. From such viewpoints, the Government of Japan decided to host the G7 Summit in Hiroshima, considering Hiroshima as the most fitting location to express its commitment to peace.
Need I draw attention to the ironies? No, guess not. Well, just a little. That lady..sorry military person / thing…. is carrying Biden’s nuclear key bags, which are just a bit too heavy for an older person and which he always forgets in coffee shops.
From Chugoku news.
We had the dithering leaders of the Western capitalist cartel, facing the collapse of their financial empire, none of them with an approval rating above 50%. Kishida’s jumped — all the way to something over 40%.
In any case, the G7 assembled a cast of war criminals — or at least wannabe war criminals— to talk escalating the conflict and get their marching orders. from the Old Guy and his handlers.
- a.) In the interests of peace we need a bigger, nastier war—that is a “counteroffensive”. Remember that was supposed to be the “off-ramp” for the US so it could focus on China before the elections — as I wrote here.
- b.) There have to be more weapons for Ukraine, especially aircraft that US needs to clear out of inventory – F16s—this to coincide with a new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs— air force General Charles Q Brown Jr. who we can reliably expect to also speak for Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Boeing and the bunch behind the F35 boondoggle.
Click to see full-size image
Dead man walking? No, the title is “Dead men flying”.
Dead Israeli F15
As I said, the Russians will continue to win as they have all along. F-16s won’t matter except to ensure General Brown a cushy job in the MIC after retirement.
The US and NATO have claimed they were winning so long that they are locked into the lie. When in doubt— deny.
Sadly, for PR control, Zelly let slip that, yes, Bakhmut had fallen. His handlers in Kiev and US State were pissed. So quickly he backtracked, which led to more misstatements and embarrassment. Fortunately, The NYT— the world’s most famous propaganda organ had his back.
Click to see full-size image
Got it?
“Tactical opportunity”.
Zelensky’s dick must be getting raw from the piano keys. He has to play louder and louder.
For one thing, NATO have been mostly incoherent about Bakhmut.
March 30, for example.
Click to see full-size image
So we have “tactical opportunity” and “tactical encirclement”.
Click to see full-size image
Not that either of these things exist.
Torturous and tortured logic screaming for mercy? Of just comedy? Zelly is a comedian remember. Still, I will try to explain.
According to Zelly….
Click to see full-size image
- b. He also said that Bakhmut now existed “only in our hearts”- meaning the hearts of Banderite Ukrainians off in Galicia somewhere— since for the people of Donbas, including the former (Russian) residents of the town” it was always Artyomovsk, not Bakhmut. This is also double entendre since the Banderites don’t really have hearts.
- c. Bakhmut was unimportant strategically—although it is a key communications and transportation hub midway in the “contact line” on the road to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk in the North and Konstantinvka in the West. Hey, we never liked those places anyway — they’re Russian.
- d. Bakhmut was “occupied” by the Russians, but not “really” because the war is not over. The same applies to Crimea, Mariupol and presumably much of Russia itself.
- e. Bakhmut is “surrounded’. The Ukrainians hold one village to the southwest. And also a village on the road to Chasov Yar. Both positions are tenuous at best. But Ukrainians have long arms, I guess.
That “tactical opportunity” that the NYT touts.
On MoA, “Sushi” a frequent and very intelligent commentor writes:
I think it worthwhile to note the collective West is demonstrating a response identical to that of the Germans in the period following their defeat in Operation Bagration (The Soviets destroyed 28 of 34 opposing German divisions, shattered the German front line and were but one bound away from being in sight of Berlin). In 1944 the Allies held the initiative, had clear escalation dominance, superior logistics, a massive over-match in industrial production, and exceeded the enemy in military skill. Germany faced defeat; its Wunderwaffen response constituted an irrational denial of military reality. The contemporary West is presently engaged in a equal denial of military reality.
This war is not like any other. In fact, there appear to be two wars on two different planets. The Western media do not live on a planet I recognize. What war are they writing about?
As I have written elsewhere, No Man Can Find the War.
The Ukraine is rapid being depopulated, both by emigration and boy slaughter on the battlefield—which in the long term, should make it easier to create “New Russia” to replace the Banderite state. If only we can persuade the Galicians and their ilk to go to Poland, who doesn’t want them.
Simplicius the Thinker writes of UAF losses:
- 109th Brigade
- 116th Brigade119th Brigade
- 241st Brigade
- 93rd Brigade
- 77th Brigade
- 46th Brigade
- 4th Brigade
- 17th Brigade
- 61st Brigade of Jaegers
- Special Forces and Spetsnaz Regiments:
- 5th Assault Regiment
- 8th Regiment of Special Forces
- Kraken Battalions:
- 122nd Battalion
- 68th Battalion
- 214th OPFOR Battalion
- 49th Rifle Battalion
- 15th Mountain Assault Battalion
- Omega
- Border Guard Donetsk
- 8th Regiment of the UDAR UAVs:
- Shershen
- Adam
- Karlsen
- Terra
- Skala
- Madyar
- Khartia
- Kep
- Seneka
- WASP Legions:
- Dudaev Battalion
- Georgian Legion
- Mansur Battalion
- Shamil Battalion
- Gonor
- Normandy Legion
How many were lost in the Battle for Bakhmut? Hard to say. Prigozhin estimates 120,000 casualties, 50,000 KIA, the rest wounded with up to 40,000 dying afterwards. Wagner losses he estimates (according to SouthFront) at 20,000.
Colonel Cassad, not the most objective commentor, estimates KIA over 250,000 for the whole war. Pepe Escobar quotes a similar figure.
Russian sources generally claim about 100,000, with wounded many times higher. In any case, UAF losses are roughly 10 times higher than Russian losses, thanks to the RF’s overwhelming superiority in air power and artillery and much better battlefield medicine. In Bahkmut, Wagner losses were still at least a third that of the Ukrainians, despite being outnumbered 3:1 or 4:1.
About 30% of UAF wounded die – compared to just 10% of the Russians.
Part of the discrepancy between Cassad’s figures and those of others is that he includes deaths of the wounded and MIAs, of whom there are many since the Ukrainians often leave their dead on the battlefield, possibly to avoid paying relatives compensation— as was demonstrated in Izyum, despite a massive Western propaganda campaign to accuse the Russians of War Crimes.
Whatever figures you choose— other than the always distorted stats you get from the Western media—the battleground favors the Russians — and now the UAF is not in any position to launch any significant offensives.
So where then is the US’s “off ramp” that I wrote about earlier? How can it avoid a two-front war against both Russia and China? The answer is it can’t.
It can only hope for stalemate.
So, the “West” better known as Washington, is now promising Zelly F16s.
F16s are not as rugged as their Russian equivalent, the Mig29 – they require good airfields and bases — which the Ukrainians don’t have. They carry the latest Mach 4 AIM120Ds with a range just over 80 nm. The Russian Mach 6 R37M has a range over 220 nm. They are never going to be game changers.
Abrams tanks? That would mean more DU munitions. That toxic cloud has already reached London and how are the German Greens explain that the contamination of food — and …um.. their children to voters?
Nor is it in the interest of the American MIC since as I have said before, Russian destruction of these tanks would hurt sales.
So just more Leopards.
But prospects are poof. NATO has supplied the Ukrainians with its most advanced weapons, like the Patriot, only to see them destroyed. Stingers, Javelins, HIMARS, Storm Shadow cruise missiles. None of them have made a difference.
Russian industrial capacity exceeds that of the US by a significant margin. Now it is putting Su57s and Armata tanks into play plus new ISR and EW capabilities. Ukraine is a proving ground for a bigger war. And in a year or so, it will more than ready to take on all of NATO and win— bigly.
In the shorter term, it is expedient for the Russians will take all of Ukraine. At that point, Poland, Slovakia, the Baltics, Romania and so on will become buffer states.
Caught between a rock and a hard place? Nope. Russia is a rock. But the US, which used to be “hard” is now a soft and squishy place. Too many Big Macs, I guess.
Of course, the Americans want an excuse for further control — and exploitation of Eastern Europe— as a substitute for what they hoped to do with Russia.
But the people of Europe don’t have to accept this scenario. What has the US actually have to offer? It can buy off European elites but how can it buy off the people. Right now France’s Macron would lose an election to Le Pen. When times are fine, people are dumb. When shit hits the fan, they start to think.
The rest of this century belongs to China.
As I said, the G7 in Hiroshima was just show.
Ultimately, Zelly’s Comedy Hour was the Opening Act.
The real target of the G7 was China. Remember : I wrote the US wants an off-ramp for Ukraine and to find an on-ramp against China.
Source: BBC
The US has been successful in setting up bases in the Philippines and perhaps Papua New Guinea while installing a client government in Thailand. But this success may be short-lived. The New Marcos in the Philippines is the same as the Old Marcos— corrupt. The new Thai government will likely fall. Thailand has always been neutral— and in any case its economic interests are with the rest of ASEAN and here China offers a future. Papua New Guinea already had a defense agreement forced on it by Australia. But it also has agreements and good relations with China. \
In the end, it all comes down to economics. The G7 cartel is failing.
The only country that practices “coercion” is the US. This apparent to all countries outside the G7 – and certainly to the observers who came to the show — Brazil, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and others.
Our rating for the G7 show. Certified Rotten
