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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
The US expected the mutiny attempt by the private military company Wagner to be “a great deal more violent and bloody” than it actually was. Unfortunately for Washington, a Bolshevik-like revolution was not repeated to usurp Russia’s war effort. At the same time, the head of EU Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, incorrectly espouses that the Russian military will soon crack.
According to US media reports, the intelligence community in Washington claims to have had information about Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans and believed that this would result in further bloodshed.
“I do know that we assessed it was going to be a great deal more violent and bloody,” a Biden administration official told CNN.
On June 24, PMC Wagner took control of the Russian city Rostov-on-Don, including the headquarters of the Southern Military District, because Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner, claimed the Russian military targeted his camps in missile and bomb attacks. The Russian Ministry of Defence and Federal Security Service denies the allegation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a televised address on June 24, saying that Wagner’s actions were an armed mutiny and treason. He then promised tough measures against the insurgents.
Later in the day, the Belarusian presidential office said that Prigozhin had agreed with Aleksandr Lukashenko’s proposal to stop Wagner’s troop movement in Russia and take further steps to calm the situation. Prigozhin later confirmed his adherence to the proposal, saying that Wagner’s troops were returning to their camps – and just like that, the mutiny was already over.
In the end, there was no destructive battle for Moscow. The West hoped for a fierce battle between the Russian military and Wagner, ultimately destroying Moscow and ending the Russian military operation in Ukraine.
“Now is the moment when blood can be shed. Therefore, realising all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction,” Prigozhin said when explaining the reason for ending Wagner’s march to Moscow.
Despite Russian unity evidently prevailing, Borrell saw a threat to nuclear stability in Europe against the background of recent events in Russia and considered it necessary to continue EU military support for Kiev as the Russian military is “cracking.”
“The political system is showing fragilities, and the military power is cracking,” he told reporters in Luxembourg ahead of an EU foreign ministers meeting on June 26.
“It’s not a good thing to see that a nuclear power like Russia can go into a phase of political instability,” Borrell said, adding that this was the moment for the EU to continue supporting Ukraine more than ever.
Thus, the EU foreign ministers approved an increase of €3.5 billion to 12 billion in the fund from which the supply of arms to Kiev is financed. However, even these extra billions will have little impact on Ukraine’s war effort.
Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, Oleksii Reznikov, admitted to Fox News on June 25 that early expectations were “overestimated” for the offensive. It is recalled that there were boisterous claims from the Kiev regime that Crimea would be captured in a matter of weeks once the “Spring” Offensive was launched.
Rather than reaching any location remotely close to Crimea, Ukraine’s offensive utterly failed, resulting in Kiev resorting to a narrative shift of “saving lives” and probing Russian positions instead of launching offensive operations.
Reznikov said the current manoeuvres are “some kind of preparatory operation.” He also acknowledged that the Russians had built “very strong defensive lines.” This is covering rhetoric by him to hide that Ukraine, despite all its Western equipment, never had the manpower and capabilities to push back Russian forces.
With Ukraine’s counteroffensive in its third week, it is beyond any doubt that it has been nothing more than a major failure. Ukraine and the West, out of desperation, thought that a saving grace was provided in the form of Prigozhin’s mutiny. To their disappointment, Russian unity prevailed, and now the West is scrambling to provide Ukraine with even more funds as the counteroffensive stagnates.
Even more disgusting is that the Biden official appeared disappointed that Russian blood did not spill on the streets of Moscow because of Wagner’s mutiny. It also shows how the West still has very little understanding of Russia when considering Borrell believes Russian power is “cracking” rather than strengthening following the purging of traitorous elements.
