Three netizens on Facebook (FB) claimed without basis that a super typhoon as powerful as Typhoon Yolanda (international name: Haiyan) could possibly enter the country on Nov. 15 or 16.
In an advisory published Nov. 14, 5 a.m, PAGASA reported a low pressure area 1,620 kilometers east of Southeastern Mindanao, which may or may not redevelop into a tropical depression depending on temperature, atmospheric and ocean conditions. A tropical depression is at least three times less intense than a super typhoon in terms of wind speed.
“Sa ngayon po hindi pa po namin nakikita kung magiging super typhoon siya,” Chenel Dominguez, a weather forecaster at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) told VERA Files Fact Check in a Nov. 13 phone call.
(As of now, we cannot see whether it will be a super typhoon.)
The FB posts also predicted that the alleged “super typhoon” would make landfall at Catanduanes on Nov. 20. It could allegedly span up to 1,000 miles (1,609 km) in diameter, with maximum sustained winds of 235.20 kph.
“Ang pinakamahirap i-forecast sa bagyo ay kung gaano ito magiging kalakas. So para sa isang pinagpapasa-pasahang mensahe na super typhoon na very very sure siya, ekis na agad yon,” Ariel Rojas, ABS-CBN’s resident meteorologist, said in a Nov. 12 TikTok video debunking the same claim.
(The hardest thing to forecast in a typhoon is how strong it’s gonna be. So for a viral message to be very, very sure that there’s going to be a super typhoon, it’s immediately a red flag.)
“Predicting five days entails considering multiple variables and recognizing the uncertainties in weather forecasting… Weather conditions are dynamic, and predictions can change,” Jun Galang, chief of PAGASA’s weather division, told VERA Files Fact Check in a Nov. 13 email.
The wind speed figure in the messages circulating on social media is close to the one recorded from Super Typhoon Yolanda in 2013. The largest typhoon ever recorded is Typhoon Tip which had gale force winds extending 675 miles (1,000 km).
The four FB posts with no basis garnered a total of over 1,468 interactions. These appeared six days after the 10th anniversary of Typhoon Yolanda which devastated the country in 2013.
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(Editor’s Note: VERA Files has partnered with Facebook to fight the spread of disinformation. Find out more about this partnership and our methodology.)
