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One month ago, the long-awaited “counteroffensive” of the Ukrainian military began on the southern fronts of the Zaporozhye, Kherson regions and the DPR. During a month of bloody battles, the Ukrainian military managed to take full or partial control over 8 small villages located on the Russian front lines. At the same time, Kiev has demonstrated its military genius, blowing up the Kakhovka dam, which resulted in an environmental disaster. Dozens of settlements were flooded and dozens of civilians were killed to obtain some military benefits, which they have not been able to take full advantage of to this day.
The goal of the large-scale summer offensive is to dislodge the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from the Zaporozhye region as well as to cut off the land connection of the Russian grouping of troops and the Crimea from the Russian Federation.
Apparently, Kiev expected to deliver a crushing blow in several directions at once and reach Melitopol in the first week or two of attacks. The Ukrainian command had high hopes for the inferiority in numbers of its troops, trained and armed by NATO and provided with Western intelligence.
Summing up the first results, Kiev clearly underestimated the readiness of the Russian military. After a month of daily attacks, the Ukrainian Army failed to break through the first line of Russian defense. Fierce battles are being fought in the forefield, a few kilometers from the first heavily fortified trenches.
A positional war of attrition was imposed on the Ukrainian army. The Russian military has now switched to an active defense and largely retains the combat initiative, imposing combat operations on the Ukrainian army in unfavorable positions.
Ukrainian troops continue pounding the frontlines, rushing into battle in the same areas without proper artillery support. Russia still profits from the devastating dominance in the sky over the battlefields. Meanwhile, the ranks of the officers of the Ukrainian army are thinning after high precision strikes of Russian missiles at strategic targets throughout Ukraine.
The situation on the battlefields remains tense, but the first phase of the Ukrainian offensive has been supposedly completed and it has not brought proper results. However, despite heavy losses, Kiev has not yet thrown its main strike forces into the battle, hoping to use them after the breakthrough of the first defensive line. The main Ukrainian strike group reportedly includes more than 100 thousand fighters along with hundreds of armored vehicles and tanks.
The second phase of the intensification of hostilities is expected to begin in the near future. Kiev needs to take urgent measures to demonstrate at least some results to its Western patrons before the upcoming NATO summit.
