At the presentation of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that the Chinese economy will grow 5.2 percent in 2023 and 4.5 percent in 2024.
Given the size of the Chinese economy, that would be a key contributor to global growth in the coming year, the IMF Reasearch Director Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas said.
“As COVID-19 waves subsided (in China) in January of this year, mobility normalized, and high-frequency economic indicators, such as retail sales and travel bookings, started picking up,” the April WEO report pointed out, adding that the “reopening and growth of its economy will likely generate positive spillovers, with even greater spillovers for countries with stronger trade links and reliance on Chinese tourism.”
According to the IMF forecast, the world economy will grow 2.8 percent in 2023, 0.1 percentage point lower than its January forecast. “A return of the world economy to the pace of economic growth that prevailed before the bevy of shocks in 2022 and the recent financial sector turmoil is increasingly elusive,” said the IMF.
IMF Growth Projections: 2023
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February 5, 2023
Global growth is estimated at 3.4 percent in 2022, to fall to 2.8 percent in 2023, before rising to 3 percent in 2024. The growth of advanced economies will decline by half in 2023 to 1.3 percent, before rising to 1.4 percent in 2024.
“About 90 percent of advanced economies are projected to see a decline in growth in 2023… With the sharp slowdown, advanced economies are expected to see higher unemployment, a rise of 0.5 percentage point on average from 2022 to 2024,” said the IMF.
China and India are “two exceptions to the slowdown” that the global economy is expected to experience this year, said World Bank Group President David Malpass in a media call ahead of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings week.