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Sudan appears to be moving closer to a civil war as a result of a deadly power struggle between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The clashes broke out on April 15 when the RSF made an attempt to capture the capital, Khartoum. The army responded with full force, even calling in airstrikes against the paramilitary force. Intense fighting took place at the presidential palace, the residence of the army chief and Khartoum International Airport.
The clashes quickly spread to the northern city of Merowe. The RSF managed to seize a key air base near the city, where a detachment of the Egyptian military was recently deployed for joint drills. Egyptian Air Force MiG-29M fighter jets and El-Sa’ka Forces personnel were captured by the paramilitary group.
As of April 16, clashes were still ongoing in Khartoum as well as in the cities of Merowe, Port Sudan, Kassala, Gedaref, Damazin, Kosti, Kadugli, and Omdurman.
After a large offensive, army troops re-entered Merowe air base on April 17. The army also managed to hold onto most of the key positions in the capital.
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese army, and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the top commander of the RSF, accepted on April 18 a 24-hour ceasefire proposal after pressure from the United States. However, the ceasefire collapsed within a few hours, with clashes resuming in Khartoum and several other parts of the country.
As of April 19, the death toll from the clashes in Sudan has exceeded 270 people, with more than 2,600 others wounded. Many of the casualties were civilians.
Both al-Burhan and Dagalo have been ruling Sudan as the president and vice-president of the so-called Sovereign Council since a coup in October 2021.
Tensions between the two commanders stem from a disagreement over how the RSF should be integrated into the army and what authority should oversee the process during transition to civilian-led rule in the country. The army wants the transition to happen this year, while the RSF wants to push the process further back.
The clashes in Sudan are not ideological in nature, but rather a struggle over power. The army is said to be closer to Egypt, while the RSF receives backing from the United Arab Emirates. However, both sides support a neutral foreign policy for Sudan and maintain good relations with all international players, including both the United States and Russia.
The power struggle between the army and the RSF will likely delay transition to a civilian-led rule in Sudan, and could push the unstable country into a multi-year civil war.
