The Philippines suffers the most runaway of fuel prices in South East Asia brought about by the US/Israel war against Iran. As pump prices increased today for the third straight week since the conflict started, diesel prices have again increased by P15 to P18 per liter, pushing regular diesel costs to over P130 and premium diesel to as high as P144.20 in some major brands.
There is, however, a drastic difference in how diesel prices currently behave in the region, as divergent as their petroleum resources and how respective governments are responding to the crisis in West Asia. Some countries are unaffected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz while others are experiencing unprecedented pump price increases.
The Philippines, with a shocking range of 100% to 177%, has the most runaway diesel price increase since the war started in West Asia. Pump prices were at an average of P55/liter before February 28.
The country has no domestic oil production and imports its refined petroleum products from China, South Korea and Japan that have all announced cutting back on exports until Middle East supply stabilizes.
Compounding the problem is the deregulated nature of the oil industry in the Philippines where global and domestic market forces as well undisclosed profit margins of oil companies are the rules. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is thus far refusing to utilize emergency powers being offered him to suspend taxes on oil products to significantly reduce pump prices.
Brunei Darussalam, a major oil exporter, expectedly registers a 0% increase in diesel prices largely because of its domestic production and government control.
Surprisingly, even oil rich Malaysia is being affected by the Middle East crisis, registering a 55.26% increase in diesel prices since February 28, 2026. The increase is sharper in Peninsular Malaysia while prices in oil-rich East Malaysia remain stable.
Vietnam and Cambodia registers a nearly identical price surge of 73% and 74%, respectively.
To mitigate the impact of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, Vietnam issued a resolution allowing for more flexible, daily price adjustments rather than the standard weekly review. Like the Philippines, Vietnam is heavily dependent on petroleum product importations.
The Cambodian government meanwhile has reduced import duties and Value Added Tax (VAT) on diesel to 0%. It has also eliminated the 4% special tax on diesel and maintained a fuel price reduction via direct subsidy of 6.5 cents per liter.
While actual market increase in Thailand had been implemented in phases, its government has raised the official price ceiling to 33.00 baht to manage a growing deficit in the Kingdom’s Oil Fuel Fund.
Myanmar and Laos have maintained a moderate diesel price increase of 37% and 33%, respectively. In Myanmar, the military junta has set official price ceilings and strict purchase quotas but black market prices are estimated to be significantly higher. Laos’ diesel price increase is attributed to its weakened currency against the US Dollar.
Singapore, the richest country in the region, registers a 29% increase in diesel prices in the past three weeks. While demand for the fuel type is low in the island-country because of its strict motoring regulations, its diesel has reached a historical of S$3.73/litre because of the Middle East conflict.
Indonesia’s subsidized diesel has had no increase since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Its unsubsidized diesel, however, has an increased pump price of 9%.
Thailand ordered a strict price freeze on standard diesel as soon to shield consumers from global volatility, leading to a low percentage increase of 4.01% at the pump.
There is no available data for Timor Leste. # (Raymund B. Villanueva)