Geopolitical Economy Report
The war in Ukraine drags on, but polls show that a growing number of people in the US and Europe want peace negotiations and a diplomatic settlement to resolve the conflict.
Political leaders in Western governments are largely ignoring what their own citizens say, however, instead preferring to escalate the violence.
Geopolitical Economy Report previously highlighted a survey from June that found that 94% of people in the US and 88% in Western Europe say NATO member countries should “push for a negotiated settlement for the war in Ukraine”.
That poll was conducted in an unorthodox way, however, allowing participants to respond with multiple answers, meaning the total summed to more than 130%.
More conventional polling published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in July reflects growing anti-war sentiment on the continent, and shows that a plurality of people in many European countries want peace talks.
ECFR is an avowedly pro-NATO voice of Atlanticism, and is funded by numerous EU member states and the European Parliament. But despite the think tank’s bias, its survey demonstrates that many Europeans don’t think there is a violent solution to the conflict, and even oppose sending Ukraine more weapons.
When asked what to do about the war, a majority of people in Bulgaria (61%), Greece (59%), and Italy (57%) said “Europe should push Ukraine towards negotiating a peace deal with Russia”.
A peace deal is also supported by a plurality of people in the Czech Republic (46%), Switzerland (42%), Germany (41%), and France (36%), along with a sizeable minority in Spain (31%) and Portugal (31%).
In fact, very few people in Europe believe Ukraine can win the war. (This is perhaps unsurprising, considering the average age of Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines is a shocking 43 to 45, and the government is desperately trying to punish and forcibly draft refugees.)
A plurality of people in every European country surveyed, except for Estonia, said that “Ukraine and Russia reaching a compromise settlement” is “the most likely outcome of the war”.
Another part of the survey found that a majority of people in Bulgaria (63%), Greece (54%), and Italy (53%) think it is a “bad idea” to “increase ammunition and weapons supplies to Ukraine”.
A sizeable part of the population in the Czech Republic (42%), Germany (40%), France (34%), and Spain (32%) is also against further arms shipments.
The people of Estonia, Sweden, Poland, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and Portugal are more hawkish, and want to keep arming Ukraine.
Although this survey clearly reflects a strong anti-war sentiment in Europe and widespread support for peace talks, the political class in Brussels and London is almost entirely dominated by hawks, who have resolutely opposed all attempts at brokering a negotiated settlement.
